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Passenger Demand Forecasting System (PDFS)

Published

Value

250,000 GBP

Description

Summary of the work This new system development will be a waterfall development that will use the Core Algorithm specification of MOIRA 2.2 and a list of Business Requirements. The new system will be tested against the current MOIRA 2.2 system. Latest start date Monday 1 March 2021 Budget Range up to £250k capped time and materials Why the Work is Being Done The ambition is to own a tool that could be deployed and used widely to provide a common basis for rail demand modelling, forecasting and appraisal, providing wider opportunities to use, develop, support and maintain the product. The starting point is to write new code that builds a core algorithm module based on the production for specification document for the algorithm element of Moira 2.2, and ensures user-friendliness and flexibility for further software development. The project shall rewrite the algorithm using modern programming language which will make future improvements and development more feasible. Problem to Be Solved • Replicate current system’s algorithm functionality (excluding the appraisal module); • The core algorithm module to eventually be part of an integrated model that is yet to be built. This should include a database solution. • This project will be considered complete when the algorithm module is tested with a set of inputs to produce a set of expected outputs. • All the code to be written with regards to coding best practice with full annotation, full model documentation and quality report. • Need for a system that DfT owns with no reliance on proprietary code. see additional conditions Who Are the Users The new system will be used by different stakeholders for a wide range of purposes, mainly: • DfT and Network Rail will use PDFS to determine the value for money of rail infrastructure and rolling stock schemes. • Bidders for rail franchise competitions can use PDFS to show the effects their proposed timetables may have, and DfT can use it to assess those bids. • Train operators will use PDFS to optimise the train timetable for their network, and to decide which types of trains should be used for each service. • Most users will use PDFS to predict demand and passenger revenue Early Market Engagement DfT have commissioned independent model and code reviews of the current system, MOIRA2.2. The language and functionality was independently reviewed. Additionally, work has been pulled together on user lessons learnt, particularly for use in franchising. These studies are: • Source code review ITS Leeds - 2017 • Source code review for DfT - 2017 • MOIRA2.2 review - 2017 • Lessons learned by Systra on CrossCountry franchise - 2018 Passenger Demand Forecasting Council (PDFC) have commissioned BJSS to run a Discovery Phase. This Discovery project validates the existing MOIRA 1 & 2.2 systems (models, algorithms and technology platform). It then explores if the creation of a new system is required to address un-met or new needs. Having identified the users and understood their needs, it also identifies and scope potential options and solutions for further exploration in a follow up stage Work Already Done Model users have developed a good understanding of how existing models work, and the use cases where an improvement of its functionality is crucial. An overall architectural review of MOIRA2.2 and its dependencies has been mapped out by DfT. The Discovery phase has identified who the users would be and the needs of those users, while the limitations of the existing system have been explored. Existing Team Project Leader, Business Analyst, Digital Architect, Data scientist, Rail Modelling Team, MOIRA 2.2 working group, IT Specialist Current Phase Not applicable Skills & Experience • Demonstrable evidence of transport modelling experience, especially in Rail, so they are able to deliver “like-for-like” functionality; • Demonstrable evidence of experience of developing code to a modern and open source programming language; • Demonstrable evidence of experience of using the algorithm specification as input and delivering a working system and experience in producing and maintaining technical documentation and a knowledge base; • Demonstrable evidence of experience of designing and implementing algorithm and physical data models to enable integration and reporting requirements; • Demonstrable evidence of experience of performative relational database design; • Demonstrable evidence of experience implementing API's, Code Libraries, Reusable software components where incremental system delivery practiced based on a modular and service oriented architectural approach. Nice to Haves • Demonstrable evidence of working within a challenging and complex public-sector environment; • Demonstrable evidence of handover knowledge on system to internal staff in specialised and experience technical roles for post-implementation maintenance and support; • Demonstrable evidence in delivering conformance to the System specification and Cloud Strategies (IaaS, PaaS and SaaS) for incremental functional replacement including approach to migration/management of legacy applications Work Location Department for Transport, Great Minster House, 33 Horseferry Road, London, SW1P 4DR. The suppliers will work from their offices. Working Arrangments The suppliers will work on the project until a working and tested version of the model with full documentation has been delivered. Regular updates will be sent to DfT every couple of weeks. Security Clearance No Security Clearance is required Additional T&Cs Business Requirements will be provided this project will be considered complete when the module is tested with a set of inputs to produce a set of expected outputs (taken from MOIRA2.2) Tests to be carried out: • Consistency tests, to identify any differences from MOIRA2.2; • Sensitivity tests, to ensure it responds satisfactorily and sensibly to changes in inputs. The output documentation will include: • Developer guide (a detailed version of the production for specification describing the algorithm with refences to the bits of code); • Quality report to inform its quality standards • Inbuilt annotation inside the code. No. of Suppliers to Evaluate 5 Proposal Criteria • Technical solution (15%) • Approach and methodology (15%) • How the approach or solution meets user and organisation needs (10%) • How they’ve identified risks and dependencies and offered approaches to manage them (10%) • Estimated timeframes for the work (10%) • Value for money (10%) Cultural Fit Criteria • Demonstrable evidence of working as a team with our organisation and other suppliers (2.5%) • Demonstrable evidence of transparent and collaborative decision making (2.5%) • Demonstrable evidence of taking responsibility for their work and resolving problems effectively (2.5%) • Demonstrable evidence of sharing approach, knowledge and skills with other team members and with the department by example (2.5%) Payment Approach Capped time and materials Assessment Method • Case study • Presentation Evaluation Weighting Technical competence 70% Cultural fit 10% Price 20% Questions from Suppliers 1. "What are the assumptions around the Intellectual Property (IP) of this work?E.g. Will the supplier be allowed to retain any?" We need for a system that DfT owns with no reliance on proprietary code. 2. Can the Technical Architecture for the overall solution be provided in advance of any proposal being submitted?The Technical Architectural Review and its dependencies will be only provided to the awarded supplier. The Technical Architectural Review and its dependencies will be only provided to the awarded supplier. 3. What platform & cloud assumptions have been made about this solution? The service must meet the GDS Technology Code of Practice and DfT’s Architectural Principles and Standards. The service should sit on DfT’s instance of Google Cloud Platform see linkhttps://www.gov.uk/government/publications/technology-code-of-practice/technology-code-of-practice 4. What platform & cloud assumptions have been made about this solution? Google Cloud Platform. This environment will be managed by DfT Digital Service. 5. What is the expected cloud provider for the project (e.g. AWS, Azure, Google, etc,) and who will manage this environment? Google Cloud Platform. This environment will be managed by DfT Digital Service. 6. What are the specific input and output (e.g. test cases) specifications / criteria for this solution? The PDFS Core Algorithm module will be developed based on the MOIRA 2.2 Core Algorithm Specifications and a list of Business Requirements(Functional & Non-functional). The project will be considered complete when the new system is tested with a set of MOIRA 2.2 inputs (Demand, Timetables, etc.) to produce a set of expected outputs (Revenue, Journeys, Train Load, etc). 7. Question 1 “Demonstrable evidence of transport modelling experience, especially in Rail, so they are able to deliver like-for-like functionality” is a very specific ask. Do you require all the elements mentioned in this question to be covered in supplier responses? We expect evidence of transport modelling experience and especially in rail. You can support your answers by mentioning how this experience can be used for the PDFS development. 8. What roles are you expecting suppliers to provide as part of their team? We have no expectation of roles, we expect bidders to provide innovative responses on the makeup of their team to deliver this requirement and will evaluate the proposal comprehensively as per criteria listed 9. Are you able to recruit and provide access to users for the purpose of user engagement/research/testing as needed by the project? Access to users is necessary and it will be provided, especially for the purpose of testing.  Department for Transport and Network rail are the main stakeholders. 10. Please can you share a procurement timeline outlining steps (which would typically include evidence response evaluation from 28th January, shortlisting of suppliers for next stage, preparation of supplier proposals, evaluation of supplier proposals, announcement of successful supplier, contract completion, contract signatures, commence work on 1st March)? Estimated Timeline for Stage 2Invite suppliers to stage 2 and send out declines to unsuccessful bidders estimated  05/02/2021Submission of proposals deadline 10:00 hours -12/02/2021.Stage 2 Moderation 18/02/2021Draft Call off and commercial documentation –18/02/2021-25/02/2021 Finalise and award contract- on or before wef 01/03/2021 11. Are you content for supplies to respond with multiple examples to evidence response questions? There are some questions, for example, “Demonstrable evidence of experience implementing API’s, Code Libraries, Reusable software components where incremental system delivery practiced based on a modular and service oriented architectural approach” where supplier experience may be best demonstrated by citing multiple examples. Suppliers can use clear examples to demonstrate their skills. 12. Do you anticipate this project will need to follow the Service Standard (which is referenced under the Technology Code of Practice)? With this being proposed as a Waterfall project, there may be conflict with the Service Standard? No. Point 12 of the Technology Code of Practice only applies if you’re building a service. This opportunity relates to building a core algorithm only so we do not expect the service standard to apply 13. Are you able to share the outputs from Discovery at this stage please? The answer is No at present. We will provide some of the discovery outputs only to the awarded supplier 14. Could you please explain the justification for the selection of Moira 2.2 as the algorithm specification? Passenger Demand Forecasting Council and DfT own the MOIRA 2.2 algorithm specifications. MOIRA 2.2 Core Algorithm specifications have been peer reviewed and approved and the scope of this exercise is to develop a system that can replicate MOIRA 2.2 outputs.

Timeline

Publish date

3 years ago

Close date

3 years ago

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